There’s been a lot of hype going on around Bitcoin’s future price. Just today a leading crypto analyst shared his views and thoughts on why the bull trend will continue with a possibility of Bitcoin plunging down to $1700 by June. Bulls may be preparing to run, but bears may have one last hurrah according to this analyst.
In a recent Twitter thread, Murad Mahmudov, a Princeton graduate turned diehard crypto trader and hedge fund head hopeful, broke down why the “famous 200-week moving average (MA) support” for Bitcoin will break in coming months.
You can view his tweet here:
1/ Why I believe the famous 200-Week Moving Average support from the last bear cycle WILL BREAK during this bear market cycle:
— Murad Mahmudov ? (@MustStopMurad) January 31, 2019
Drawing attention to the crypto market’s historical cycles, three of which have been fleshed out so far, Mahmudov noted that the key MA25, MA50, MA100, and MA200 were shifted “‘one level’ back with each cycle.” In fact, as depicted in the chart below (courtesy of Mahmudov), each multi-year market cycle, the importance of each MA level decreases, as averages pertaining to longer time frames takes their place.
Of course, this is all just technical analysis and does not put any fundamental analysis into play.
And as such, Mahmudov remarked that just as the 200-week moving average was a level of utmost importance for BTC from 2015 to 2018, MA300 (and potentially MA400 too) will be integral lines to watch in the coming months.
He believes that history is known to repeat itself and taking a look at the charts, Mahmudov believes that the price will sink near the $1700 mark.
However, he made it clear that Bitcoin could “wick down” to as low as MA350~400 in the $1,700 range, “due to past patterns and how particularly overstretched the 2017 bubble was.”
Although Mahmudov presumably had the best intentions in mind, the analyst’s use of the 300 moving average quickly made him take flak from his peers. In response to Placeholder partner Chris Burniske’s quip on Mahmudov’s harrowing thread, Alex Krüger, a New York-based macro markets researcher, remarked, “300 MA, what a joke, only in crypto.” Four Aces echoed Krüger’s comment, noting that the 300 MA doesn’t have as much inherent importance as the 200 MA does.
Others cast Mahmudov’s use of obscure moving averages aside to note that the call for lower lows in and of itself could have holes, citing market psychology and traders’ inability to be right 100% of the time. Armin Van Bitcoin, a skeptic of much in the crypto industry, noted that the monumental run-up of 2017 saw Parabolic Trav, who capitulated, become a popular figure. By the same token, he noted that the bear market of 2018/2019 had Mahmudov, rhetorically asking the analyst when he would end his enamorment with issuing predictions.
All this aside, Mahmudov seems bullish, even overly so, from a long-term point of view. In an interview with Tone Vays, one of Mahmudov’s fellow fervent crypto traders known for their (somewhat) inflammatory calls, Mahmudov remarked that he’s so bullish, that he wouldn’t spend the cryptocurrency for at least ten years, as the asset’s potential upside and asymmetric risk profile makes it nonsensical to use BTC at current rates.
The Tone Vays guest added that not only are cryptocurrencies like the Dotcom industry in 1994 — quite minuscule, but a potential for dramatic upside — but that there are trillions of dollars worth of equities that can flow into blockchain-based tokens over time.